Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.009715 0.010977 0.012341 0.013926 0.015719 0.017683 0.019999
2025-11-16 0.007742 0.009487 0.011533 0.014111 0.017275 0.021036 0.025852
2025-11-23 0.006513 0.008436 0.010820 0.013994 0.018115 0.023296 0.030320
2025-11-30 0.005825 0.007897 0.010582 0.014325 0.019416 0.026118 0.035639
2025-12-07 0.005028 0.007088 0.009865 0.013890 0.019588 0.027394 0.038943
2025-12-14 0.004460 0.006512 0.009375 0.013673 0.019981 0.028935 0.042675
2025-12-21 0.003942 0.005941 0.008820 0.013283 0.020051 0.029976 0.045722
2025-12-28 0.003731 0.005792 0.008852 0.013737 0.021377 0.032927 0.051835
2026-01-04 0.003499 0.005585 0.008768 0.013995 0.022406 0.035492 0.057547
2026-01-11 0.003311 0.005425 0.008736 0.014318 0.023548 0.038300 0.063863
2026-01-18 0.003054 0.005128 0.008458 0.014212 0.023973 0.039977 0.068443
2026-01-25 0.002838 0.004879 0.008231 0.014165 0.024478 0.041803 0.073401
2026-02-01 0.002596 0.004569 0.007886 0.013897 0.024603 0.043028 0.077483
2026-02-08 0.002453 0.004417 0.007796 0.014063 0.025494 0.045645 0.084267
2026-02-15 0.002278 0.004193 0.007561 0.013946 0.025864 0.047356 0.089531
2026-02-22 0.002188 0.004114 0.007573 0.014277 0.027070 0.050661 0.098036
2026-03-01 0.001997 0.003832 0.007193 0.013843 0.026803 0.051212 0.101307
2026-03-08 0.001854 0.003627 0.006941 0.013627 0.026927 0.052498 0.106102
2026-03-15 0.001703 0.003394 0.006614 0.013238 0.026679 0.053035 0.109429
2026-03-22 0.001664 0.003380 0.006709 0.013691 0.028140 0.057042 0.120173
2026-03-29 0.001605 0.003320 0.006709 0.013948 0.029221 0.060364 0.129761
2026-04-05 0.001557 0.003278 0.006739 0.014270 0.030459 0.064097 0.140533
2026-04-12 0.001468 0.003144 0.006573 0.014164 0.030781 0.065937 0.147335